When I began working on energy policy in 2008, “nuclear renaissance” was all the buzz. Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama emphasized the need for American energy independence and more emissions-free power. Senator McCain called for the United States to build forty-five new nuclear reactors by 2030. The plan was ambitious, but as one of his top economic advisors commented at the time, “not so large as to be infeasible given permitting and construction times.”

With less than five years to go, only two reactors have been built since the late senator’s campaign pledge. Those units cost over $30 billion, running seven years behind schedule and $17 billion over budget, though the second unit experienced 30 percent cost declines. Maybe the current state of the nuclear industry would look different if McCain had won, but here we are. 

Tech Advances and Policy Stagnates

In fact, in 2025, the nuclear industry does look very different. A wide range of small modular reactor (SMR) technologies is emerging. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that eighty SMR designs and concepts exist worldwide. While most are not novel technologies, the budding SMR industry ranges from 50-megawatt microreactors to 300-megawatt designs. Many innovative companies are American-based or allies of the United States. With data centers’ impending load growth demand, several states are considering restarting decommissioned nuclear plants.